WASHINGTON, April 4 – U.S. President Joe Biden issued a clear ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday: protect Palestinian civilians and foreign aid workers in Gaza, or risk a reduction in U.S. support for Israel’s conflict with Hamas militants. This message comes after months of urging from the U.S. for Israel to revise its military tactics, particularly following an Israeli airstrike that tragically killed seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen (WCK) and sparked international condemnation. While Israel has acknowledged the strike as an error, the White House did not specify the exact actions it expects from Netanyahu. However, analysts suggest that the implicit threat could involve slowing down U.S. arms transfers to Israel or reducing U.S. support at the United Nations.
Analyst Steven Cook from the Council on Foreign Relations likened the situation to a pivotal moment, stating, “This is as close to a ‘come to Jesus’ moment as you can get.” This comparison reflects Biden’s prior indication that he and Netanyahu were approaching a critical juncture. Dennis Ross, a seasoned U.S. diplomat currently affiliated with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, echoed similar sentiments, noting, “The president is essentially conveying that meeting these humanitarian needs is imperative, or else there may be repercussions in terms of conditioning military assistance.”
With November’s reelection looming, Biden has grappled with the delicate task of navigating pressures to restrain Netanyahu from progressive Democrats concerned about the high toll of Palestinian civilian casualties. However, he faces the potential risk of alienating predominantly pro-Israel independent voters. Despite this challenge, Biden has refrained from imposing conditions on arms transfers thus far.
The war commenced following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th, claiming the lives of 1,200 individuals as per Israeli reports. This incursion prompted an Israeli invasion that inflicted extensive damage on the densely populated region and displaced the majority of its 2.3 million inhabitants. According to the health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, over 33,000 Palestinians have perished, with a significant portion being women and children. Israel contends that Hamas utilizes civilians as human shields. In response to these developments, the White House stated that Biden urged Israel to declare and execute a series of specific, tangible, and measurable measures to address civilian casualties, humanitarian distress, and the protection of aid workers.
The White House added in a statement that he emphasized the U.S. policy regarding Gaza will be contingent upon the evaluation of Israel’s prompt implementation of these measures.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was more direct.
“Let me be clear: if the necessary changes aren’t observed, our policy will change accordingly,” stated U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Later on Thursday evening, mere hours following the conversation, the Israeli government unveiled a series of measures aimed at boosting aid to Gaza. These initiatives encompassed the opening of the Ashdod port and the Erez crossing into northern Gaza, along with heightened aid shipments from Jordan. However, uncertainty lingered as to whether these actions would meet the requirements set forth by the United States.
TURNING POINT
Monday’s deadly Israeli assault on workers from celebrity chef Jose Andres’ WCK charity group marked a pivotal moment for President Biden, known for his staunch support of Israel. This incident coincided with intensified pressure from the Biden administration on Israel to explore alternatives to a potential ground offensive in Rafah, the last relatively secure area for civilians in Gaza’s coastal enclave.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a source familiar with the discussions revealed that the 30-minute call between Biden and Netanyahu was occasionally tense, with Biden articulating his concerns while Netanyahu defended his approach to Gaza. A senior White House official characterized the conversation as “very direct, very straightforward,” indicating the participation of Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and Blinken.
Regarding the United States’ expectations, the official emphasized the necessity for a comprehensive plan to improve the situation, stressing the importance of preventing the loss of humanitarian aid workers and civilian lives.
Despite Biden’s longstanding reluctance to curtail U.S. support for Israel, it appears that he may have reached a breaking point. Mike Singh, a former National Security Council official on the Middle East, noted that there was always a threshold where the costs of backing Israel’s campaign in Gaza outweighed the benefits, highlighting the significance of this development.
Singh speculated that if Israel failed to meet Biden’s conditions, the United States might resort to negotiating a U.N. Security Council resolution akin to the one that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. He acknowledged the political challenges of imposing conditions on arms transfers, which could leave Israel susceptible to attacks by Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies.
While Biden hinted at his stance last month by delineating a “red line” regarding a Rafah invasion, he refrained from explicitly committing to withholding all offensive weapons, fueling speculation about potential restrictions on arms transfers to Israel, which heavily relies on U.S. arms.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer on the Middle East, suggested that while Biden might not take extreme measures like withholding major weapons or completely severing ties with Israel at the U.N., he could impose conditions on smaller military items and enact further measures against extremist Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank.
In sum, Panikoff highlighted Biden’s escalating frustration with the conduct of the war and Prime Minister Netanyahu, suggesting that it has reached a critical juncture.
