Introduction:
In a major move, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew underlined that a period of peace in Gaza and meaningful talks regarding Palestinian governance are prerequisites for formalizing Israeli-Saudi relations as part of a trilateral agreement involving Washington. Lew laid out the requirements for achieving this momentous diplomatic endeavor during a speech on Tuesday at a conference organized by the think tank Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).
Conditions for Normalization
“There’s going to have to be some period of quiet, I think, in Gaza, and there’s going to have to be a conversation about how do you deal with the question of the future of Palestinian governance,” Ambassador Lew stated. He acknowledged that while the strategic benefits of this trilateral deal are significant, it ultimately falls on the Israeli government and its citizens to decide whether to engage in these crucial conversations.
Strategic Benefits and Diplomatic Risks
Lew’s comments come in the wake of the U.S. describing a bilateral defense pact with Saudi Arabia as “near final.” This defense pact is a pivotal part of the broader agreement that seeks to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, presenting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a decision on whether to make necessary concessions.
Netanyahu, who has long sought this diplomatic milestone, remains cautious amid the ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Despite the elusive nature of a ceasefire, he stresses that it is too early to deliberate on the future governance of Palestinians while the conflict persists. “Of course, we want to expand the circle of peace. We haven’t been shy about this,” said Israeli government spokesperson Tal Heinrich. “But any peace initiative that jeopardizes Israel‘s security is not something that we see as real peace.”
Wider Implications and Strategic Goals
At the same conference, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who holds a largely ceremonial role, expressed his support for the potential normalization with Saudi Arabia, arguing that it would weaken Iranian-backed Hamas. Herzog pointed out that the October 7 cross-border rampage by Hamas was aimed at thwarting such normalization efforts. “I very much hope that this possibility is being seriously considered, as the empire of evil sought on October 7 to destroy the chance for normalization,” Herzog remarked.
He emphasized that the conflict with Hamas is part of a broader, strategic, and historic struggle, advocating for Israel’s integration into a grand vision of normalization.
The Challenges Ahead
However, the Netanyahu government has warned that failing to decisively defeat Hamas could damage Israel’s credibility with U.S.-aligned Arab Sunni powers, who are also concerned about Islamist militancy. This concern underscores the delicate balance Israel must maintain between pursuing long-term strategic alliances and ensuring immediate security needs.
In conclusion, while the path to Israeli-Saudi normalization is fraught with challenges, including the need for peace in Gaza and addressing Palestinian governance, the potential strategic benefits make it a compelling goal. The decisions ahead will significantly shape the future of regional diplomacy and security.
